All bets are off...
100% Cash time for me here.
Tried the SVIX yesterday, was stopped out and went to 100% cash.
Yes, there is still strength in this market (KRE, GLD, IWM etc.), but the spillover risk is to high for me here.
On the daily SVIX we need to cross the 10 MA with a base before (see April), until then this is a sit out and wait market:
Watching:
AEM —> looks better and better
GBTC —> base and then breakout and I am interested…
IBB, IWM, KRE, XLU —> Flagging
The big question is, will the Tech weakness spill over to the strong areas of the market. I am not sure, so I keep it light until I get an entry signal on the GEX / SVIX.
Quads / Network Momentum (3c = last week’s post that I am carful), still look decent, but with volatility trending + August / September is not the strongest season.
GEX Signal gave a good exit on big cap tech:
https://www.portfolio123.com/app/r2g/summary?id=1757039
Since the beginning of 2023, we have not seen such (one day!) volatility in tech:
And todays performance is not included in the above cap curve:
Correction to last week’s post:
I was wrong about small caps, I had a blind spot in my models, I exclude financials (which is a good idea in terms of total return, but a bad idea, if you want to gauge the market for small caps overall).
Here is one example (one of my better models, this one now including financials):
So, I added the models with financials to the models I watch every day.
Zoom out and you know that including financials is not always a good idea:
Same model without financials:
So, it depends, but again, having both mutations on the watch is important (this is what I missed, so I missed the KRE trade!).
Also, I am furiously watching ETFs every day to get a better feel of the market (List at the end).
All the best and best regards.
Andreas
P.S.
Here is the ETF List
VIXY
VXX
SQQQ
SARK
PSQ
KRBN
ICLN
TAN
BITW
GBTC
BITO
TWM
XLU
GDX
SX70
SMIN
IHF
USO
XLV
XPH
RWM
IBB
IHI
SIL
SX60
IYK
AEM
PPH
GLD
TNX--X
XHE
XLE
GNR
GUNR
PBE
KGC
SPXPV
XBI
XLRE
MOO
HYG
XOP
XLP
XHS
IXR
PBJ
IAK
CRAK
SX90
KIE
T2104
T2100
FRI
SCHH
T2127
COPX
CALF
BRKB
SX40
XTL
SX50
RSPS
KRE
XTN
EVX
BOAT
KBE
TLT
WOOD
FCG
IYT
XLB
RSP
EWZ
ENFR
PHO
SX30
XLF
SX10
PSCI
IAI
FTXG
IYG
IYZ
FXI
IWM
XHB
XRT
XME
ERTH
ITB
XMI
XAR
SLX
ARGT
SX100
SOCL
EWW
BJK
AMLP
XES
ARKG
RSPN
ESPO
XLI
MSOS
IDGT
ITA
GRID
OIH
BETZ
CIBR
ROBO
XSW
JETS
RSPD
KWEB
WGMI
BLOK
QQQE
KURE
ARKX
CHIQ
BOTZ
URA
MJ
IWL
SX20
CLOU
XLC
URNM
XLSR
OEX
IYC
WCLD
LIT
FDRV
IGV
XLG
MTUM
FDN
IPO
QQQ
SX110
ARKF
XLK
XLY
ARKQ
ARKW
UNG
IXCO-X
SMH
ARKK
NYFANG
TQQQ
SVIX
FNGU
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