Breadth is back and bears get smoked...

Constructive Quad 1-2

Museum at night party, we had a great time ;-)

Breadth is back:

This is very, very important, because this is bull market behavior!

If you study the T2108 breadth indicator and new highs / new lows, you can see the following:

Whenever T2108 came from overbought extremes pointing lower it did not stop at the 40-30 range, it went down further, and we then had substantial damage to the major indices every time since the end of 2021. The opposite is the case now!

Interest rates are backing off (and relative strength, the red line is pointing lower!) —>

The dollar is stronger, but the relative strength line (red line) is pointing lower too:

My system book is at all-time highs:

The book sold 3 positions yesterday, I am long about 80%.

And I bought COIN yesterday (discretionary), I think I found my setup (weekly setup and hourly signal) and the pond to fish in (mid to big caps, with leverage I need to be in and out faster than with my small caps, as soon as Quad 3-4 hits, I sell all discretionary positions and have space for the hedge), more on this in future posts.

Longer term I am constructive for 2024 and 2025:

1. #secularbullmarketUSA (consensus is to buy China here, I could not disagree more!)

2. Liquidity is up, see @crossbordercap on X and watch their videos!

3. The treasury and the fed really want this economy and (!) the stock market in a good shape (re-election year!). This is crystal clear since November (Treasury issuing more bills, which adds liquidity + the following Fed pivot).

4. Inflation is down hard (and with China probably having do devaluate (=exporting deflation) + the US pumping Oil like crazy + OPEC in a bad shape, I do not buy into the higher for longer camp right now).

And again, forget China, I trade what is in front of us, nothing gets bought that is not bullish trend:

Clear buy signal in December, clear sell signal in February! Here is the chart template: https://www.tc2000.com/~Sl9euT

All right, have a great week.

All the best and best regards.

Andreas

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