Do not buy the dip!
Staying hedged...
GEX: No panic in put buying, relative to the volatility we are seeing, GEX should be much lower, but it is not, we need panic for a bottom, not complacency. Again, relative to the carnage we are seeing. And now internals are much worse than March 2023 or October 2023, because higher beta stuff is not showing any relative strength, which it did in 2020 (yes during the COVID crash), big time in March 2023 and (a bit less) in October 2023.
This looks like 2020
Today (QQQ):
2020 (QQQ):
Quads (this version is based on ETFs only) look terrible, Quad 4 in full swing!
Breadth: we need a reading below 20, better below 10 to get a sustainable bottom:
Bottom in Breadth / SVIX looks like this:
November (QQQ, Breadth, SVIX):
Now (QQQ, Breadth, SVIX):
SVIX / Breadth: lows need to be tested several times, then 20 MA needs to catch up to price and flatten out. During this process, Indices are not done going down. The key is: Indices go down further, but not the SVIX / Breadth (just testing lows several times, while 20 MA catches up), then it is pay attention time.
Before all that happens, I do not see a tradable bottom, too much damage and news flow will be not effective until FED Meeting / Election is done.
Again, if we are lucky we drawdown hard from here, the lower the better, the lower the bigger the trading opportunities we get!
All the best and best regards.
Andreas
The information on from Andreas Himmelreich / QuantStrike and this video / blog is for information and discussion purposes only. It does not constitute a recommendation to purchase or sell any financial instruments or other products. Investment decisions should not be made with this video / blog, and one should consider the investment objectives or financial situation of any person or institution.
Investors should obtain advice based on their own individual circumstances from their own tax, financial, legal and other advisers about the risks and merits of any transaction before making an investment decision, and only make such decisions based on the investor’s own objectives, experience, and resources.
The information from Andreas Himmelreich / QuantStrike and this video / blog is based on generally available and paid information and, although obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy and completeness cannot be assured, and such information may be incomplete or condensed. All performance results are hypothetical and the result of back testing only. Out-of-sample performance may be different. No claim is made about future performance.
Investments in financial instruments or other products carry significant risk, including the possible total loss of the principal amount invested. Andreas Himmelreich / QuantStrike and this video / blog do not purport to identify all the risks or material considerations which may be associated with entering any transaction. Andreas Himmelreich / QuantStrike and this video / blog accepts no liability for any loss (whether direct, indirect or consequential) that may arise from any use of the information contained in or derived from Andreas Himmelreich / QuantStrike and this video / blog.