Nice Day ;-)

Stagflation = Risk off

So, days like yesterday show us why a stagflation regime is a risk off regime, lol. Glad I did not get any longer!

ETF Portfolio did o.k., IWM Short and ARKK shorts saved the port.

Nothing changed, we are in stagflation in my book.

So, the danger now is that deflation hits.

But to buy into the downtrend of bonds in my book is insane. Wait for the uptrend in $TLT. Supply is the problem here not demand. And demand would need to go down a ton until supply is not the issue anymore. So, it could well be, that even we hit deflation economic regime $XLE will not develop a downtrend and in this case the ETF Portfolio stay like it is.

I try not to anticipate but play the trend until it changes.

We buy bullish trends, not bearish trends (TLT = bearish trend!)!

What I see remembers me to 2000-2003. Shorts and longs worked at the same time, so lets see.

Not a big fan of strategic macro, but the arguments are here:

Trading Systems confirm stagflation:

Crowding confirms stagflation:

Earnings of inflation exposure going up:

Have a great weak!

Disclaimer: For educational purpose only. Not investment advice. Seek professional advice from a financial advisor before making any investing decisions.