Nothing to do!

Stay conservative!

Positions:

Not much to do here (besides the weekly rebalance of the port), still 33% short on the Russel 2000 and long micro - small cap value momentum.

Do not short high beta names here, they are too deeply in the woods, and they have very spiky runs in a bear market.

EVERYTHING can happen here, if they make peace we go up, if not the knock down effects of sanctions cannot be calculated in my view.

I am even very reluctant to tell you to short the SPY or the QQQs 1-2% higher here to protect your longs. From all what I see, that should be a good spot. But I do not know.

#secualarbullmarketUSA

In all cases the US will be the most stable place to be, so forget Europe, Asia and the rest.

From what I heard over the weekend (Germany and the rest of Europe investing in their military) this all leads to stagflation. Higher inflation and lower growth.

TLT still (in such a situation!) very weak, so I do not see that the market prices in deflation yet, it is still pricing in inflation.

I looked very hard but could not see anything to change course here. Yes, high beta starts to put in some mini strength, but they have to show strength when the market is down, not when it is up.

YTD Performance around 2%. Fells like the best 2% YTD of my whole life and that alone tells you how difficult the market is right now.

Have a great week!