Omicron update

Interesting Article!

On Dec. 20th I wrote:

“And if it is as dangerous (what we do not know!) + the high transmission rate, the real pandemic will start with omicron. In that case everything we have seen will be a blip compared to what will come. If the transmission rate is as gigantic as I read about it and its not less dangerous, we are in trouble.”

Here is an update:

Jonesy@HedgeyeDJ

New study from South Africa says patients infected with the #omicron variant are 80 percent less likely to require hospitalization than those with other strains.

bloomberg.com

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

12:40 PM · Dec 22, 2021

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6 Reposts · 36 Likes

So, if we are lucky, its less dangerous.

That would be the perfect natural vaccine that nobody will be able to resist ;-)

If this holds and markets get this, that would be definitely a positive.

I think it will take time until that happens, my best guess is we find out in the next 2-3 weeks.

And media and politics will not be very vocal about it because they do not want to derail their vaccine campaigns and media is more about bad news then good news.

What makes me think it might be less dangerous is the very tame “mini lockdown reaction” of the German and “no lockdown so far” reaction of the US government(s); I think they lean more to the assumption that it is less dangerous but still need confirmation.

Pay attention to the reaction of the market, if it is a big reaction, this will provide some support for the market. 

But we are not there at all! As I wrote this morning, this is the spot to sell into strength (if you still have high beta exposure) and not to get all in.

Also keep in mind that if it is 80% dangerous but 10 time more transmissible, we still will get a ton of bad news because in this case hospitals will still have a load that they will not be able to handle. And at that point lockdowns would have a comeback.

But again, let’s think about “That would be the perfect natural vaccine that nobody will be able to resist.”

Longer term (say 6-9 Months) it would be the best thing that could happen because then it may all over in 2022. The scare trade (because of high transmission rate) would let the markets tank and we could get a good setup for the 2nd half of the year.

Let’s see!

Have a good day!