Portfolio123.com for Traders: Quad 4 Screen (Correction, wrong link!)
For P123 subscribers (minimum Level “Screener” Subscription).
Hi, just a quick one, here is the Quad4 Screen I wanted to develop and finally made it ;-)
Correction I had the wrong link here; this one is the right one —>
https://www.portfolio123.com/app/screen/summary/307997?mt=1
The screen looks for an environment where defensive exposures are strong.
The ranking system of the screen makes sure to load low volatility stocks from the DJ.
Here is the backtest:
Here is the link to the Quad 1-2 (Tech and Cycs strong) Screen and the Quad 3 (Energy Stuff strong) Screen:
https://www.portfolio123.com/app/screen/summary/306142?mt=1
https://www.portfolio123.com/app/screen/summary/306141?mt=1
Here is how I use all this stuff:
If none of the above screens show any stocks it would be “Quad 0”, that is clearly risk of, swing traders go to cash
If only the Quad4 screen is showing stocks: it means we are in a Quad 4 environment, that does not mean one cannot make money, but traders should focus on low volatility stocks (avoid high beta stuff!).
Sometimes all 3 screens will show results (like November 2024), that is a breath thrust (“everything is strong”), in this case I would choose stocks out of the Quad 1-2 screen
Quad 1-2 and Quad 3 can also happen at one time, this would be still risk on in my book but watch for Quad 1-2 leave the room.
I am not done with my backtesting, but in general those screens point into the direction “on what is hot” right now.
So you change your watchlists based on the environment:
Quad 1-2 —> small caps, growth, tech, cycs etc.
The idea is to load those stocks into your watchlist and play your favorite technical setup with it. I personally take the positions of 3-4 higher beta trading systems and simply put all of the stocks into a watchlist in TC2000.
Examples for growthy systems (free!):
https://www.portfolio123.com/app/r2g/summary?id=1757039
https://www.portfolio123.com/app/r2g/summary?id=1765750
Quad 3 (alone, the other screens show no stocks) —> same thing, now only I would filter out to engery, materials etc. related stuff
Quad 4 (alone, the other screens show no stocks)—> only look at stocks in the low vola space
Here is a free (the above one is protected) low vola system:
https://www.portfolio123.com/port_summary.jsp?portid=1825588
Here is my group (make sure, you understand which trading system is doing what, those are mostly Quad 1-2 Systems). The group is free (for P123 subs) and you can copy the systems and make it your own.
https://www.portfolio123.com/app/group/317/data/PTF
The systems from the above group are systems that I traded (or would have traded) a couple of years ago, not Tier1 but a very, very good start (I would have killed for stuff like that when I started out in 2011 with P123).
The next group is only for (paying ;-)) subs from my blog “Systematic AI Investment Portfolios” (I synch the emails manually over the weekend, make sure the emails match, e.g. use the same email for the blog / P123 subscription). These systems have protected ranking systems, e.g. they cannot be copied. Yes, not all Systems are based on the AI Factor, but mostly I used the “Feature importance” of the ML-Algos to build them or they simply had very good OOS.
https://systematicportfolios.substack.com/publish/subscribers
I would love to share strategy books (live and simulated) in those groups, but we are still implementing this functionality.
Back to the Quad screens:
Remember, I do not trade discretionary big time, still learning, but my biggest weakness was to find “what is hot right” now, so I am pretty excited about those screens.
+ here is my technical setup
So step by step I am getting there ;-)
Have fun!
Best Regards
Andreas