Quad 1 - 2
+ I added Crossborder Capital to my framework
We still have a Quad 1-2:
Quad 1 bullish trend:
Quad 3 URA and Coal bullish trend:
Quad 4 huddling along, but not leading (which is good!):
Oil weak and Dollar weak —> releases liquidity and therefore supports Quad 1-2.
New highs, new lows looking good —>
I added Crossborder Capital to my framework:
Here is a video on Crossborder Capital (they have been bearish for 2022 and bullish for 2023 and they are bullish on stocks, gold and crypto for 2024), really happy that I found a “general direction” framework “above” the quads:
https://twitter.com/GfI_Himmelreich/status/1727667309148287075
So if all stars alligned (liquidity up and Quad 1 - 2), it helps me to build conviction.
Small cap value momentum with an earnings tilt strategy book behaving strong:
EPS revision up models (part of the strategy book) starts to find stocks.
Nothing to change, the last Quad 1-2 call was a bit late, and I should have been a bit more aggressive in getting to a 100% long exposure, but hey that was not an easy market, so happy how I played it.
The call for next week is: Quad 1-2, Risk on.
And no, no worries in terms of pullbacks. From what I see, yes, we can have pullback on the indices, but there is so much strength under the hood, that pullbacks on my small cap value momentum stuff should be tamed (and a bit of volatility is always the name of the game, also in Quad 1-2!).
If the market stays strong, a run like last year can easily happen. Looks simple right? —>
Now look at the drawdowns.
Even in an uptrend there are regular 5% drawdowns on my strategy book (which is not easy!), but again, they are part of the game:
So, if I want to catch runs like above, I have to stay long (as long as we are in a Quad 1-2!) riding the vola!
Let me close with a general note on 2023 so far:
That was the best year so far in two respects: My learning curve exploded to the upside in terms of trading and mental health (while mental health “frontrunning” the learning curve ;-)). The book “Poker with presence” from Jason Su helped me a ton.
Without the personal development, I would have no chance to survive this game.
Maybe that was God’s plan for me: Put me up with a challenge, where I had to improve my mental health?
All I want to do is to stay present (and having presence about my presence!) and get into my feelings (feel them as intense as possible, embrace them, not judging them) and being honest with who I am and accepting it with no judgement and with self-love.
The rest will take care of itself.
Have a great week.
All the best to you and your loved ones!
Andreas
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