I have no reason to believe that this rally is not healthy.
High beta names showing relative strength, $ARKK and Bitcoin behaving really well.
Big cap growth compounders behaving really well too —>
COT Positioning is very, very bullish —>
And small cap systems doing well too —>
Nano Caps doing well —>
Even the ECRI US leading index printed a nice bounce:
How long does it take us?
Well, there is no way around to watch the tape every day. Right now, it is bullish and within the recent pullback price behavior was fine! That is all I know, no reason to predict.
So, the call from around 16-18th March 2022 is playing out o.k.:
We did not short high beta $ARKK names when everybody started to short them (capitulation shorts). Sometimes it’s just enough not to make big mistakes! —> 16th of March.
We got longer at the —> 18th of March (I took the wrong system to get longer, should have played high beta names!)
We kept the Russel 2000 Short (around 30% of the port) for a smooth ride (probably not the right move in hindsight). I will keep it; I simply like a smother cap curve outside of goldilocks and reflation.
We got even longer a week ago with stuff like $FB / Google and since Friday with Bitcoin (See, I am not per se a high beta bear and not per se a crypto bear ;-))) —> Posted that Bitcoin call last Friday real time on my twitter account.
With the help of the dollar, I am up 9% YTD. 2.5% below the ATH from November. I am really fine with that!
I am staying in business and I am learning a ton. All good.
Have a great time!
Disclaimer: For educational purpose only. Not investment advice. Seek professional advice from a financial advisor before making any investing decisions.