Still Micro Quad1, pullback expected!

Hedging into strength next week!

We are still in a micro quad 1 —>

15 Quad 1 and 12 Quad 2 exposures putting in a one week high on relative strength to the SP500. Basically 0 Quad3 and Quad4 exposures show strength. That means the market is pricing in growth, while inflation is going down.

It does not matter if this is a bull market or a bear market rally. With smaller accounts we can be in and out of the market fast, we do not need to know what will be in 4 weeks like institutions that need weeks and weeks to get in and out of the market. All we need to do is nearcast.

What matters is to look at the tape every week and to act accordingly!

Almost everything got a bid besides value tilts.

Small cap value momentum with a quality tilts:

Small cap value momentum growth tilt:

Small cap value momentum value tilt:

My book is doing well:

Also, my disc. positions doing well (NFLX, AMZN, COST, DXCM, WMS).

Still, I am expecting a pullback here, so I will build a hedge position on my small cap value momentum system book up to 20% into strength next week. And I will sell all disc. breakout positions next week step by step…

Then an important juncture will come:

We pull back (3-5% would be nice):

If (!) we are then still in Quad1-2 and liquidity pointing up again, this would be the time to lift the hedge and press longs aggressively!

If (!) then Quad 3 or 4 emerges that would be the time to press the hedge and protect more.

All the best and best regards.

Andreas

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