Tradeable bottom?

Hmm....

VXX weekly: not optimal, not a real capitulation:

But: System book out of small cap value momentum materials, small cap tech, mega cap growth compounders, and EPS surprise small caps does not look bad here at all:

Small cap value momentum:

Small cap value momentum energy:

Small cap value momentum tech:

Mega cap growth compounders (cap weighted):

Mega cap growth compounders (equal weighted):

So, the question is:

Is it enough to get long here?

Hmmmm….

VIX had not a huge spike and Secular Growth (equal weighted) is still pretty weak and high beta trash as well.

Otherwise, there is some relative strength esp. in the quality small cap value momentum space.

For me that is not enough, I want to see at least a higher spike in the VIX and a better behav. of higher beta stuff. Or even more relative strength in the small cap space.

But I am aware, that the higher beta stuff with no earnings get a ton of sell pressure here because of the FED releasing the airbag below the market (they care about the SP500 not so much about retail that is addicted to Peloton and co.).

Could be a “normalization” of the markets, where fundamentals (value) start to count like in the 2000-2003 and 2003-2008 timeframe when micro-small cap value momentum had a huge run.

Too early for me to make that call…

What is clearer to me is that the high beta trash trade (high beta with no earnings and not a really good chance to earn in the future and high beta with earnings but slowing earnings) is not the trade of 2022.

The question I have to ask me: is this an easy or a tough market?

I think it’s still a tough market.