Wrong call, I am hedged!
Wrong call, I got rid of a 20% SVIX Position and hedged my portfolio with a healthy 40% short position on the SPY around the open.
Key for me was, that the SVIX did not gap up and then showed further weakness against the indices.
+ the projected high of the day was almost in (not day trading here, but using the Captains low and high of day projections to time my hedges). —>
Quads clearly went to Quad 4:
Here is the history of the Quad calls (red —> wrong calls! “c” means I corrected the call at the beginning or mid next week, green indicator are the trends I got well, as you can see I am struggling since March):
So a again I am long / short and wait for the next pitch to lift the hedge.
That would be:
T2108 (breadth) —> below 20 (best would be below 10, but that very rare) and basing
GEX giving a positive divergence signal (GEX up while indices down)
+ an add (with leverage) when the Quads turn positive again.
By the way, the GEX:
Yesterday’s GEX move is a very small move down relative to the damage we have seen in IWM and QQQ, so, this is a negative (a bearish) divergency.
Also, I will use the high of day projections of the Captain to add to hedges.
Day traders dream, in negative gamma dealers must sell when prices go down and must buy when prices go up, extending the move (so trend days are in play).
Well, not my cup of tea, but every strategy has its time ;-)
My interpretation of the markets move: the market thinks the FED should have lowered interest rates (I think so too). The last policy error (concerning lowering rates) was at the end of 2018, that moved the market down substantially (26% loss on the Russel 2000, 20% on the QQQs!). So moves like this are possible outside of recessions.
Not projecting, but if that happens, we get a very, very nice big (long) pitch because that would happen in a liquidity up (yes, liquidity is still up) situation.
All the best and best regards.
Andreas
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